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Free Major League Baseball Predictions for APR 24

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The Prez MLB Tab Major League Baseball

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Event:
(979) Houston Astros at (980) Chicago Cubs
Date/Time:
Play:
Total Under 7.5 (-108) S Arrighetti (RHP), J Taillon (RHP) Must Start

UNDER 7.5 CHICAGO VS HOUSTON

This is one of those games in which we have a ton of data on run production at Wrigley Field when the wind is blowing in. And it's set to be blowing in over 10 mph with temperature's in the low 40's. Over the years, Unders have cashed at a 60% clip when these type of conditions exist at Wrigley. I've got an Astros team who can't hit their weight right now and a Cubs team that has struggle over the last 2 weeks to score runs. I think both these teams will look to grind out a win in this one. Both teams also know that the ball won't be traveling so expect more small ball in this one. I like the Under 7.5 in this game and over the years, it's been a profitable spot to back one.

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Marco D'Angelo MLB Tab Major League Baseball

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Event:
(975) Chicago White Sox at (976) Minnesota Twins
Date/Time:
Play:
1H Minnesota Twins -0.5 (-115) G Crochet (LHP), J Ryan (RHP) Must Start

The White Sox have had a miserable start to the season going 3-20 to start the season. They have been held to 2 runs or less in 8 of their L11 and 15 of their 23 games this year. They are going to be facing Joe Ryan who has allowed 3 runs or less in 3 of his 4 starts and the only start that he allowed more than 3 runs he gave up 4 to Detroit when he faced them for the 2nd time in 6 days. We know the hitters always have the advantage facing a Pitcher in back to back starts. Joe Ryan has a K/BB ratio of 30-3 which is fantastic and is going to make it hard for the Offensively challenged White Sox to score runs. Garrett Crochet goes for the White Sox and although his 1st 2 starts were very good his L2 starts were not as he lasted just a total of 7 2/3 innings allowing 12 runs total and gave up 3 HR’s. So we are going to make this a 1st 5 inning wager and make it strictly starting Pitcher vs starting pitcher and lay the -0.5 Run and bring this price down to -115

KEY STAT: CHI WHITE SOX are 2-17 against right-handed starters this season averaging just 2.2 RPG

KEY STAT: CHI WHITE SOX are 7-28 after a one run loss over the last 2 seasons


TAKE MINNESOTA -0.5 Run 1st 5 Innings -120 

Released/revised 2 hour(s) ago

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Steve Merril MLB Tab Major League Baseball

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Event:
(977) Seattle Mariners at (978) Texas Rangers
Date/Time:
Play:
Texas Rangers -114 B Miller (RHP), J Gray (RHP) Must Start

Texas starter Jon Gray projects to give up 2.5 runs with a 3.73 ERA and 1.27 WHIP.  Seattle’s lineup has hit just .180 (11-61) with a weak .603 OPS against Gray in his career.  The Mariners will start Bryce Miller.  The righty projects to give up 2.7 earned runs with a 4.46 ERA and 1.41 WHIP.  With the starting pitching in Texas’ favor, look for the Rangers to get a solid home win on Wednesday night.

Play RANGERS (-).

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Drew Martin MLB Tab Major League Baseball

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Event:
(953) New York Mets at (954) San Francisco Giants
Date/Time:
Play:
New York Mets +116 S Manaea (LHP) Must Start

This week's Free Pick Recap: 2-1 (+0.99 units) 

Tuesday: BOS -111 LOSS 
Monday: DET -108 WIN
Sunday: DET +110 WIN 

Hit this game in the second breakdown of today's show… 

 

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Las Vegas Cris MLB Tab Major League Baseball

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Event:
(965) Baltimore Orioles at (966) Los Angeles Angels
Date/Time:
Play:
Baltimore Orioles -124 D Kremer (RHP), T Anderson (LHP) Must Start

3% BAL ML (-124) listed/listed

Tyler Anderson is a good pitcher to fade right now, due to being miss-priced for his low ERA. But his xFIP is 5.19 and his SIERA is 5.34. Kremer is over a full point better in each. 

SIERA refresher for those who don’t know:
- it tells us how the underlying skills of a pitcher rate
- it tells us how they actually pitched over the last year, not just a quick glance at ERA, wins, etc.
- it informs what to expect in future outings
- SIERA under 3 is excellent, 3.25 is great, 3.75 above-average, 3.9 average, 4.2 below average, 4.5 poor, 5.0 or worse = awful.

Lesson over, but it is important to understand what these terms actually mean; so you are not trusting in an irrelevant number, from someone who doesn’t dive deep.

BAL is raking LHP: 8th in BA, 5th in wRC+ at 27% above average, 4th in ISO, 5th in SLG
LAA vs RHP is slightly to greatly below league average in all metrics.

The Baltimore pen is more trustworthy than LA’s. 

The implied odds at -125 are 55.5%
Our model has BAL winning at 59.75% or a fair price of -148

Good to -140
heritage

 

Released/revised 4 hour(s) ago

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The Gold Sheet MLB Tab Major League Baseball

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Event:
(959) Los Angeles Dodgers at (960) Washington Nationals: Freddie Freeman Total Bases
Date/Time:
Play:
Freddie Freeman Total Bases Over 1.5 (+ 100)

The Dodgers need their bats in the outfield to wake up, but there are no such worries about the production they are getting from the infield. Freeman has enjoyed three-straight multi-hit games entering Wednesday, including three doubles in his last two games. So far this season, Freeman is hitting .358 with a .990 OPS against right-hand pitching. This will be the Dodgers' second time seeing Jake Irvin in a week after he threw 6.0 scoreless innings in Los Angeles on April 17. Short turn-around situations like this almost always benefit the hitter. In nine plate appearances against Irvin, Freeman is 3-for-8 with a double and a walk. Last season, 26 of the 37 extra-base hits that Irvin allowed came against left-hand batters. Freeman is swinging a hot bat right now, and this is an attractive matchup for him to take advantage of. 

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Wed Top Play Trio | +63.1% L2 Months: $29.00

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Mark Zinno MLB Tab Major League Baseball

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Event:
(961) Miami Marlins at (962) Atlanta Braves
Date/Time:
Play:
Miami Marlins Total Over 3.5 (-105) S Sanchez (RHP), R Lopez (RHP) Must Start

The Marlins close out their three-game series in Atlanta against the Braves. Miami has scored exactly zero runs in the first two games. I've spoken about the Braves trend with the Marlins that the Braves win big or Miami wins outright. Atlanta is now 31-12 straight up over Miami dating back to 2021. Only three of those Braves wins were by one run. Atlanta has won 66% of the games against Miami this decade, so the overall math says the Marlins may have a shot here. Baseball regression also tells me that it's really tough for the Marlins to not score for a third straight game. Now they are facing Reynaldo Lopez who has been excellent to start the season. He's gone six innings in all three starts and allow a total of one run! So the Marlins have their work cut out for them, but this a low number at nearly even money. The Marlins don't have to win, they just have to score, so we have some extra outs here. 

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Ralph Michaels MLB Tab Major League Baseball

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Event:
(953) New York Mets at (954) San Francisco Giants
Date/Time:
Play:
1I Total Under 0.5 (-120) S Manaea (LHP), B Snell (LHP) Must Start

(953) New York Mets at (954) San Francisco Giants

1I Total Under 0.5 (-120) S Manaea (LHP), B Snell (LHP) Must Start

From the First Inning Report I post on Twitter each day @CalSportsLV

The teams are both 8-1 NRFI in their L9 games

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Looking for free MLB picks from professional Major League Baseball Handicappers?  Wagertalk's expert handicappers provide EPIC daily MLB expert picks at absolutely no charge.  Get free MLB picks today. 

Free MLB Picks - ATS, RunLine, HR Props and MORE Every Day in 2024

Here you can find free MLB expert betting picks from WagerTalk's elite team of handicappers. Detailed game previews, analysis, and predictions backed by statistics. Get going with 100% FREE hot MLB picks of the day - get an edge.
Run Line Picks, Moneylines, MLB Props, MLB Parlays from WagerTalk: 

WagerTalk offers you free MLB predictions and betting picks every day of 2024 for MLB games - from the Pirates to the Giants to.. well, every team in Major League Baseball.   And don't forget our daily HR Props!

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WagerTalk offers every type of MLB expert picks you could possibly want.  At WagerTalk you'll find daily free MLB picks that include: 

Moneyline MLB Picks Free:  

Naturally.  You have to offer moneyline picks and WagerTalk certainly does for MLB. 

MLB RunLine Picks: 

You'll find MLB runline picks galore at WagerTalk.  So what is the runline and why should you bet on it?  Well, simple!

The runline is baseball's version of the point spread. When betting on the runline, the favorite is -1.5 runs on the spread, with the underdog at +1.5 runs. Betting on the favorite requires your team to win its game by two or more runs. Truly, the runline is the great equalizer - it's just a little easier to place a bet when you've got a 2 run head start, right?

WagerTalk's expert MLB handicappers are runline prediction masterminds.  

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Total runs betting picks are an absolute staple of WagerTalk MLB handicappers. A major component of how to bet on baseball, a total runs wager is super straightforward, as the customer is picking whether the two teams will score over or under the listed number of runs combined during the game. The great part of a total runs pick is that you're basically just rooting for a ton of scoring.  Everybody loves that. 

Free Hitter Props Markets MLB Predictions - Including Daily Home Run Prop Picks:

WagerTalk offers MLB player props for hitters throughout the year.  A great betting market, you're simply betting on how a specific batter will perform during a game - the perfect market to bet if you're more of a player of an MLB hitter than an MLB team.  Find even more free MLB picks and player props at our sister site. 

Our daily HR home prop article is the most popular such article online!

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Fun MLB Stats - History Guides Your MLB Bets?

Which American League Teams Have Won The Most Regular Season Games?

The top winning team here is the Seattle Mariners of 2001.  They grabbed 116 wins, but then… choked and lost the ALCS. After the Mariners the Yankees in 1998 won a ton of games - 114, in fact, and won the World Series to boot.

After those two MLB behemoths, the Cleveland Indians won 111 times in the regular season in 1954,  the Yankees captured 110 wins way back in 1927 and then we have the Baltimore Orioles winning 109 wins in 1969 - but failed to win the World Series.

Which National League Teams Have Won The Most Regular Season Games?

The Chicago Cubs take it.  116 games in 1906. Nuts.  They went 116-36.  The LA Dodgers plop in behind them, going 111-51 in 2022.  The 1909 Pirates pulled off 110 wins.  The Mets (really! The Mets!) won a whopping 108 games in 1986 and the Cincy Red of 1975 tied them at 108 games won as well. 

Which Teams Have Won the Most World Series'?

Wait, the World Series has been happening since 1903?  Indeed it has!  And man have we seen a lot of winners and quite a few dynasties. 

Naturally, the Yankees top the list of dynasties - they've captured 27 World Series titles.  Following WAY behind the Yankees are the St Louis Cardinals with 11 titles, the Boston Red Sox and Oakland Athletics with 9 apiece, and the San Francisco Giants with 8 World Series titles.

Which Player Has Won the Most World Series Titles?

Yogi Berra.  Nothing else to say here, obviously it was Yogi.  10 World Series titles!

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